It was sold as an Israeli-endorsed deal. But it was President Joe Biden − whose support for Israel in the Gaza war has tarnished his reputation with Arab American voters − who announced it.
It was described as a cease-fire proposal supported by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Yet everything Netanyahu subsequently said about it was a mixed signal, and agreeing to it risks a revolt by ultra-nationalists who could topple his government's ruling coalition, leaving him vulnerable to legal woes the war has obscured.
And it contained no clear identifiable solution to the one fundamental issue that both Israel and Hamas have appeared to be completely inflexible on after eight months of fighting: whether any cease-fire plan would be permanent and involve a complete withdrawal of Israel's military from Gaza.
The White House has said it has "every expectation" that Israel will, if Hamas does, accept the U.S.-backed cease-fire plan that Biden unveiled in a surprise speech last week. Hamas has yet to sign on to the deal. Here's what the plan involves and some of the calculations Netanyahu may have to make in deciding, or not, to back it.
What was in the Biden truce proposal?
Biden said the truce proposal was first outlined by Israel and then passed to mediators who brought it to Hamas. It contained three distinct phases. The first phase of the deal, characterized as a "full and complete cease-fire," would last six weeks. During this time, Israel's military would withdraw from Gaza's densely populated areas and release an unspecified number of hostages, including women, the elderly, the wounded, as well as the remains of killed hostages. In return, Israel would release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Humanitarian assistance to Gaza would surge during this first phase, with 600 trucks being allowed into the enclave each day.
The second phase of the deal, as described by Biden, would see all the remaining hostages, including male soldiers, held by Hamas released. At the same time, Israel would withdraw its forces from Gaza. The third phase of the agreement would involve the reconstruction of Gaza. The war has resulted in massive devastation to Gaza's infrastructure. The proposal did not specify who would run Gaza during the third phase, or afterward. A previous agreement reached by Israel and Hamas, in November, allowed for a pause in fighting in exchange for the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners. The truce broke down after four days.
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Was this Israel's idea? Or the United States'?
Ophir Falk, Netanyahu's chief foreign policy adviser, told the Sunday Times (of London) the deal as outlined by Biden was something Israel previously drafted and agreed to. But he also described Biden's announcement as a "political speech," an apparent reference to Biden's poor standing with Arab American and other voters from his political base who want to see the war in Gaza end as quickly as possible.
Falk said it was "not a good deal," as outlined.
He added that there were "a lot of details to be worked out."
For his part, Netanyahu, in two carefully worded statements released in the days after Biden's announcement, said "Israel's conditions for ending the war have not changed: the destruction of Hamas's military and governing capabilities, the freeing of all hostages and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel."
A 'nonstarter'?
Netanyahu said Israel would not agree to any deal before those conditions were met. A "nonstarter," he called it.
So was this a case of Netanyahu floating a plan to Biden that Israel's leader was never actually willing to accept?
Ami Pedahzur, an expert on Israeli politics and security who teaches at the University of Haifa, said he had never before encountered a time in Israeli politics when there was "so much spin" going on in terms of teasing the government's thinking on the war and how to end it. However, he said he did not think Netanyahu was "playing games" by detailing a potential cease-fire plan to the U.S. that appears to cross some of his own red lines.
Pedahzur said one plausible explanation was that Netanyahu asked the U.S. to "put it forward to see what response" it would generate for his domestic audience, where polls show overwhelming support for any action that would lead to the freeing of hostages. Netanyahu faces growing pressure to secure the hostage's release from their families, and to end the war because of its impact on Palestinians. The International Court of Justice has ordered Israel to halt its assault on Rafah, Gaza's southernmost city. The International Criminal Court has applied for an arrest warrant for Netanyahu − as well as Hamas' leader − for alleged war crimes.
The White House has also dangled a threat to withdraw U.S. arms from Israel.
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Still, Nimrod Novik, a foreign policy fellow at Israel Policy Forum, a think tank, and a onetime adviser to Israel's late prime minister, Shimon Peres, had a different interpretation of Netanyahu's motivations. He said that "those of us who have been following Netanyahu for decades have seen this mode of operation before."
Novik said when faced with political obstacles and "narrowing" options Netanyahu almost always "trusts the second party will be obstructionist." In other words, Israel's leader is counting on Hamas rejecting the Biden-announced plan, Novik believes. He said in the event Hamas comes back with a positive reaction to the proposal "then we'll be at a fork in the road: either Netanyahu yields to the extremists in his government, in which case there will be a dramatic surge in public protests in Israel to the point where the country could be shut down."
Alternatively, should he go for the Biden initiative, triggering the fall of his government, it is possible that a coalition of centrist opposition parties could come to Netanyahu's aid to keep him in power "in the service of the national interest," Novik said. Though that would involve Netanyahu committing to "a sea change in our Palestinian policy, a permanent cease-fire, normalization of ties with Saudi Arabia, scrapping judicial reforms" and other measures that Israel's ultra-nationalists have opposed with his consent.
What happens to Netanyahu if he loses the right-wing?
The White House has denied that there are any "gaps" between what Biden outlined on Friday and what Netanyahu's government put forward. "We're confident that it accurately reflects that proposal − a proposal that we worked with the Israelis on," U.S. national security spokesman John Kirby said Monday.
However, Israel's National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich both described the plan unveiled by Biden as "reckless" and tantamount to surrendering to Hamas. They have threatened, if Netanyahu accepts it, to withdraw their parties' support for him in Israel's Knesset, or Parliament.
If that happens Netanyahu's government could collapse, potentially triggering an election and dislodging him from power and exposing Netanyahu to face a litany of bribery, fraud and breach of trust charges − all accusations he denies − that his time in office has provided a degree of shelter from.
It's also possible that a coalition of centrist opposition parties could come to Netanyahu's aid to keep him in power "in the service of the national interest," Novik said, though that would involve Netanyahu committing to "a sea change in our Palestinian policy, a permanent cease-fire, normalization of ties with Saudi Arabia, scrapping judicial reforms" and other measures that Israel's ultra-nationalists have opposed with his consent.
A threat by Benny Gantz, a retired army general and political centrist, to leave Netanyahu's wartime Cabinet by June 8 if no plan for a post-war Gaza materializes would mean Netanyahu is further reliant on his far-right allies.
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An idea for a deal. Now what?
Still, Simcha Rothman, a lawyer and member of the Knesset from the far-right Religious Zionist Party, disputed the idea that Biden's announcement of the plan in any way applies pressure to Israel eight months into the war.
"If it's the Israeli offer he spoke about (on Friday), then why would he apply pressure to Israel to accept its own offer. That makes no sense," said Rothman. "I see this as simply a political act, and not as an act that will help bring back any hostage any sooner. It's a big mistake, to say the least," he said of Biden's intervention.
Rothman said he suspected Biden was "trying to interfere in Israel's politics, which is unacceptable."
He sidestepped a question on what would happen if Hamas were to accept the plan as revealed by Biden. Rothman's comments came as Biden said in an interview Tuesday that there is "every reason" to think Netanyahu is prolonging Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza for his own political gain and self-preservation.
"I'm not going to comment on that. There is every reason for people to draw that conclusion," Biden said.
Biden used the interview, with Time magazine, offer qualified support for Netanyahu. U.S. congressional leaders are working to finalize a date for Netanyahu to deliver a joint address to Congress, an event that could draw protests. Netanyahu addressed Congress in 2015, when he voiced concerns over a nuclear deal with Iran.
Yotam Eyal, an Israeli lawyer who lives on land in the West Bank claimed by Palestinians, nevertheless said he too was against any deal with Hamas for now. "It's not about the idea of a deal, it's more about the idea that we don't have a good deal that will stop Hamas. If we keep Hamas in power in Gaza we'll get Oct. 7. again and again and again," Eyal said of the day that saw Israelis attacked, murdered and kidnapped on Israel's southern border.
Sami Omar Zidan, a Gazan currently living in temporary housing in Cairo, Egypt, where he evacuated with his wife and daughter about a month ago, before Israel completely closed the border amid its assault on Rafah, said he also only sees endless cycles of violence. Deal or not, he said, he's not sure Israel's war will ever end.
"No matter what happens,'' he said, ''Israel never stops.''
